Forecasts you can defend —
and measure.
Manual control + AI assist + monthly accuracy report. Built for revenue managers who'd rather verify than trust.
Forecast = OTB + Pickup. The math is simple. The defensibility is the hard part — and it's where Peaqplus is built differently.
| Day | OTB | LY · SP | Budget | Smart F. | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 05 | 142 / €18.4k | 128 / €16.2k | 140 / €18k | 146 | 146 |
| Mar 06 | 156 / €21.1k | 149 / €19.8k | 155 / €21k | 162 | 160 |
| Mar 07 | 168 / €24.5k | 158 / €23.1k | 170 / €23.5k | 171 | 171 |
| Mar 08 | 124 / €19.2k | 142 / €22.4k | 155 / €22k | 138 | 138 |
| Mar 09 | 118 / €17.8k | 138 / €21.2k | 150 / €21.5k | 132 | 132 |
Statistical engine. AI correction. Accuracy report.
Most forecast products are one number out of one model. Peaqplus runs three independent layers and lets you turn each one on or off (per-hotel setting). The statistical engine — Layer 1 — builds the per-hotel baseline every night. The AI correction — Layer 2 — adjusts the baseline using business context. The accuracy report — Layer 3 — measures, monthly, how well each layer did.
All three run on the 60-day horizon, on your data, refreshed every morning at 5:00. The hotel decides which tier to use; the choice is a setting, not a contract change.
- Layer 1 — statistical baseline (always on for Tier 1+) — bucketed by month, weekday, and booking-window position; recency-weighted; outlier-filtered; trend-corrected — rebuilt every night without downtime
- Layer 2 — AI correction (Tier 2 only) — a frontier reasoning model reads OTB, last-year same-point, budget, pickup trend, and the multi-country event calendar; produces a bounded adjustment with a per-day explanation in your language
- Layer 3 — accuracy tracking (always on for Tier 1+) — error metrics published across 7, 14, and 30-day horizons; raw vs AI side-by-side; the log is never pruned, so the long-term trend stays honest
- Refresh cadence — every morning at 5:00, per hotel; 60-day horizon; the accuracy report runs on day 1 of every month
- ·Bucketed by month, weekday, booking-window position
- ·Recency-weighted · outlier-filtered · trend-corrected
- ·Rebuilds overnight without downtime
- ·Inputs: OTB · LY same-point · Budget · pickup trend · events
- ·Per-day reasoning in your language · bounded to ±30%
- ·Daily refresh · 60-day forecast horizon
- ·Error metrics across 7 / 14 / 30-day horizons
- ·Raw vs AI side-by-side
- ·Log never pruned — long-term trend stays honest
Three modes. Versions. Audit trail.
The auto-engine is the foundation, but the committed forecast is human work. Choose how you forecast: segment-level (pickup nights + ADR → revenue auto-calculated), daily (per-day pickup directly), or combined (segment × day matrix). On daily mode, the Smart Forecast Enhanced pre-fills every pickup cell — the team starts from the AI's best read and finishes by hand.
Every forecast has versions — v1, v2, v3 — and from v2 onward, every change requires a reason. "Pickup underperformance." "Price adjustment." "Group booking change." Pick from the dropdown or write your own. The full version history stays attached to the month, every reason searchable.
- Five statuses — DRAFT (editable) · COMMITTED (visible everywhere) · LOCKED (month-end frozen) · SUPERSEDED (newer version replaces) · EXPIRED_DRAFT (no commit before month-end)
- Autosave every 30 seconds — nothing lost; optimistic locking surfaces conflicts as a 409 dialog rather than silently overwriting
- Smart Forecast Reload button (on daily DRAFT) — one click refreshes the AI pickup baseline while preserving manual overrides
- View switcher — Table or Calendar; the calendar makes 30-day pickup edits read at a glance
- Stale snapshot banner — when fresh OTB lands during a session, the banner offers to refresh the DRAFT to today's data
| Day | OTB | LY · SP | Budget | Smart F. | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 05 | 142 / €18.4k | 128 / €16.2k | 140 / €18k | 146 | 146 |
| Mar 06 | 156 / €21.1k | 149 / €19.8k | 155 / €21k | 162 | 160 |
| Mar 07 | 168 / €24.5k | 158 / €23.1k | 170 / €23.5k | 171 | 171 |
| Mar 08 | 124 / €19.2k | 142 / €22.4k | 155 / €22k | 138 | 138 |
| Mar 09 | 118 / €17.8k | 138 / €21.2k | 150 / €21.5k | 132 | 132 |
Eight tiles. While you edit.
Manual forecast editing without context is gambling. The Forecast Context Bar — a sticky header above the editor on daily mode — surfaces every signal the decision needs: how much time is left, how much is on the books, what last year did at the same point, where the booking pace is, the budget gap, the current competitor rate, what previous versions said, and how your manual number compares to the Smart Forecast pickup.
The team doesn't have to leave the editor to check anything. Every tile is live; every tile refreshes when the snapshot updates.
- Time pressure — days left in the month, days to check-in
- On the books — current OTB for the month
- Last year, same point — week-position-aware YoY
- Booking pace — vs last year at the same point in the curve
- Budget gap — current forecast vs plan, live what-if
- Competitor rates — public-data refresh + your relative position
- Version movement — how many pickup cells changed vs prior version
- Smart pickup — the AI pickup baseline vs your manual entry
A frontier AI model, calibrated on your data.
For hotels on the AI tier, Smart Forecast Enhanced corrects the daily 60-day pickup forecast each morning. The AI never works alone — it works on top of the per-hotel statistical baseline, with bounded adjustments and a written reason for every day.
Most AI forecasts promise. We measure.
Every month, on your data, we publish a MAPE / SMAPE / MAE accuracy report. For each forecast horizon — 7 days, 14 days, 30 days — you see the AI's accuracy and the statistical baseline's accuracy side by side. You decide whether the AI earns its place.
No magic claims. No average-of-averages benchmarks from someone else's hotel. Just the numbers, on your numbers, every month.
- MAPE / SMAPE / MAE for AI corrected vs statistical baseline
- Per-horizon breakdown (7d / 14d / 30d)
- Days counted, zero-day exclusions
- Per-day comparison if you want to dig in
Ask the forecast. In your language.
Pulse Chat carries a dedicated Forecast Advisor agent — a mentor persona, not a number-fetcher. It explains why the AI raised a day, where the next risk is, what event lines up with a spike, and where the manual forecast diverges from the AI baseline. The reasoning lands in the user's language on every answer.
Four dedicated tools give the Advisor access to forecast-specific data: the 60-day AI window, per-day correction reasoning (single-day deep, multi-day detailed, or multi-week summary), accuracy trends with raw vs AI side by side, and the event calendar. The Advisor's tool-routing was measured at 100% on a 13-question evaluation — meaning when you ask, you get the right data, not the wrong screen.
- Smart Forecast window — daily AI snapshot, raw-vs-AI delta, freshness timestamp
- Correction reasoning — three depths: single day (full text) · 2–7 days (detailed) · 8–30 days (summarised)
- Accuracy trends — raw vs AI side by side, choosable 7 / 14 / 30-day horizons
- Event lookup — multi-country holidays, festivals, and in-house events on the date range
- Terminology discipline — "Budget" = the plan only · "forecast" = your manual commitment only · "Smart Forecast" = the AI output only · the Advisor never blurs the three
- Freshness disclosure — every answer cites when the data was generated; no false certainty
2025-08-20 · 41 room nights (raw: 32, AI: +28%)
National holiday. Last year on this date the pickup was +18; the long weekend pulls neighbouring source markets to a seasonal peak. The Budget is conservative for this day (32 RN); the AI raises it based on the historical pattern.
Four reference points on every cell.
Every cell on the forecast tells you four things at once. The decision is yours.
The current on-the-books from your PMS. Live, snapshot-aware.
Week-position-aware YoY — not date-aligned. Thursday week 17 to Thursday week 17.
Your plan, broken to the same granularity as the forecast (segment, daily, or combined).
The AI suggestion (add-on), with the same change-reason audit available if you accept it.
Six conversations. Six forecasts.
The forecast isn't a once-a-month deliverable. It's a daily companion — the AI refreshes overnight, the team reads the Context Bar in the morning, the Advisor answers the why questions during the week. Here's what that feels like.
Open the Pricing Calendar at 08:00. The Smart Forecast pickup is loaded on every row. Red rows = forecast lags budget. Three days to pay attention to.
Open /forecast/edit. Smart Forecast pre-filled every cell. Context Bar shows LY same-point, current OTB, pace, competitor rate. Five minutes, two clicks to commit v2.
Ask the Advisor. Response: "National holiday, LY same-day was +18 pickup, long weekend pulls neighbouring source markets to a seasonal peak. The AI suggests 41 vs the budget's 32."
"How accurate was the AI in April on the 14-day horizon?" Raw forecast 9.8% error, AI-corrected 6.1% — over a 30-day sample. The team's confidence in the AI is now calibrated.
"What events are coming in August?" → multi-country holiday list, local festivals, in-house events. The team prices the affected dates ahead of the curve.
After a fresh PMS upload, the stale banner offers a refresh. One click and the manual DRAFT picks up today's AI baseline — manual overrides preserved.
Forecast. Verify. On real-shaped numbers.
In our 45–60 minute walkthrough (length depends on how deep you want to go), we run Peaqplus on our live demo environment — a simulated property with data that moves day to day — and walk through a forecast end-to-end. We run a sample AI correction and show you what the monthly accuracy report would look like on your own data once you're live.
No setup fee. No commitment.