MAE (Mean Absolute Error)

Definition

MAE is the average of the absolute differences between forecast and actual values, in absolute units rather than percentages. A daily forecast with MAE of 4 room nights means the forecast was off by an average of 4 room nights per day.

What it tells you

MAE is more interpretable than MAPE when you want to think in actual room nights or revenue, not percentages. Where MAPE answers “how accurate as a percent,” MAE answers “how off in real units.”

How to track it

Computed alongside MAPE after the period closes. Both should be reported together — MAPE for scale-free comparison across periods, MAE for absolute magnitude.

Where it fits

Standard part of a forecast-accuracy report. Especially useful when communicating with operators who think in room nights rather than percentages.