Reading the booking pace and the pace report

In lesson 16 (Pickup) we learned that pickup is the speed. Occupancy is the position, pickup is the movement. This lesson goes one step further: how do we look at the trajectory over time? How do we spot a month’s or a day’s acceleration or deceleration? What does it mean that a given date is “pacing well” or “has slipped”?

Pace is the time trajectory of how occupancy builds. It doesn’t show a point but a path — how the bookings arrive from today toward check-in. The pace graph, and the method of reading a pace graph, is one of the central parts of a mature RM’s daily routine.

The goal of this lesson is that you don’t just look at pace graphs but read them — that you recognize the signals of acceleration and deceleration, the event peaks, the segment slips, the “looks fine but trouble’s coming” patterns.

What pace is

Pace (booking pace) is the time trajectory of how occupancy builds for a given future date or period. Pickup states a point (“+4 rooms came in today”); pace draws a curve (“the build started 60 days out, at 30 days it was 35%, now at 10 days it’s 75%, and it’ll land at 95%”).

Pace, then, is a time series — how the occupancy level changes as the future date approaches. If we record once a day how much occupancy that future date holds, we get the pace curve.

Hotel Peaqplus City’s November 25 (Saturday) pace graph:

Days to check-in	OTB occupancy	Daily pickup
60 days	15%	+1
45 days	22%	+1
30 days	35%	+1.5
21 days	48%	+2
14 days	58%	+1.5
10 days	62%	+1
7 days	70%	+2
3 days	82%	+3
1 day	88%	+5
0 days (final)	92%	+3 (walk-in)

This is a classic S-curve-shaped pace — slow start, accelerating middle phase, and a closing run that eases up toward the 92% ceiling. The daily pickup column shows the rhythm too: around +1.5 to +2 within 30 days, +2-3 within 7 days, +3-5 in the last few days (the last-minute and walk-in peak).

A pace’s shape differs across segments and hotel types. A corporate-heavy hotel’s pace is slow start, fast finish (the pickup within 7 days dominates). For an event-peak day the pace is early start, slow middle, small finish (most of the bookings are already in 90 days out).

The three main pace comparisons

Pace on its own doesn’t say much. A Saturday standing at 35% with 60 days to go could be wonderful or catastrophic — depending on what you compare it to. Three classic comparisons:

1. Pace vs. last year

The most common. We look at what occupancy was last year at the same “point” (the same number of days before check-in). This is the same-point comparison — we cover it in detail in lesson 18.

A concrete example at Hotel Peaqplus City for November 25:

Days to check-in	This year OTB	Last year OTB (same-point)	Difference
30 days	35%	32%	+3 pp
21 days	48%	42%	+6 pp
14 days	58%	50%	+8 pp
7 days	70%	62%	+8 pp

A +3 → +6 → +8 → +8 trajectory shows pace acceleration versus last year. In the opening phase (30 days) we were nearly level, but since the middle phase we’ve moved ahead. This is a healthy signal — the hotel stands at a +8 pp pace lead. The final result is likely to be +5-8 pp above last year’s too.

2. Pace vs. budget

The budget is a planned number: “we plan 92% occupancy for November 25.” Pace vs. budget looks at whether, at the current level, we are on target, or slipping behind or ahead.

The pace-vs-budget comparison needs a historical pace path — what does the average pace look like for a Saturday landing at a 92% final? The Peaqplus Pickup module computes this from the hotel’s own historical data:

Days to check-in	Historical pace (for a 92% Saturday)	This year actual	Gap
30 days	32%	35%	+3 pp (ahead)
14 days	54%	58%	+4 pp (ahead)
7 days	68%	70%	+2 pp (ahead)

By pace vs. budget we are running ahead of the path expected to reach the budget. So we are likely to hit the 92%, and may even exceed it. This is qualitative confidence in meeting the budget — not just an absolute occupancy number, but the position on the path.

Try it with the pace projection calculator below: this year 58%, last year same-point 50% (+8 pp), last year final 84% → the projected final is 92%. Exactly what the tables show.

3. Pace vs. compset

We can also compare pace to the compset — how far ahead of or behind the competitors we stand. One limitation here: compset-level pace data is only available with an STR subscription (because competitors don’t publish their occupancy levels).

STR pace data arrives with a 2-3 day delay, and not daily but as a monthly average. E.g. “for November 25 (Saturday) the hotel’s pace is +8 pp vs. last year, while the compset average is only +5 pp” — that’s a relative market position.

We cover this in detail in lesson 44 (Compset and market positioning).

The signals of pace acceleration and deceleration

Reading a pace graph is partly recognizing the rate of change. A few concrete signals:

Acceleration (a positive signal)

• The daily pickup rising as check-in nears (the S-curve). This is normal — every hotel has it.
• ABNORMAL acceleration of the daily pickup — e.g. it jumps from 1.5 to 4 over a 30-day stretch. This is an event-discovery signal.
• The this-year-vs-last-year gap growing steadily — from +3 pp to +6, then +9 → the acceleration is strong.

Deceleration (a warning signal)

• The daily pickup falling as check-in nears — for example from 1.5 to 0.5 over 14 days. This is abnormal and worrying.
• The this-year-vs-last-year gap shrinking — from +8 to +6, then +3. We’re losing the lead.
• The daily pickup at 0 or negative (cancellations > new bookings). A strong warning.

Stagnation (a hidden warning)

• The daily pickup steadily low — e.g. +1 room every day for 14 days. It may be that the booking window has already closed (see lesson 10), and that segment is no longer moving.

The “pace shape” as a diagnostic tool

A lot can be read from the shape of a pace curve. A few classic patterns:

Classic S-curve (healthy)

Slow start (60+ days out), accelerating middle (30-7 days), tapering last few days. This is a mixed-segment hotel’s healthy pace. Hotel Peaqplus City’s average Saturday comes in this shape.

”Frontload” pace (event-driven)

Strong early booking (already at 40-50% 60+ days out), slow middle, small finish. This is an event-peak day — a festival, a concert, a wedding. The guests know in advance the event will be on, and book ahead.

”Backload” pace (corporate-driven)

Slow start (still at 25% 30 days out), fast finish (+25 pp comes in within 7 days). This is a corporate-heavy day or week. It follows from the nature of the corporate segment (short lead time).

”Flat” pace (a problem signal)

Linear or low pickup throughout — no acceleration. This is weak demand or a poorly communicated rate. A real warning pattern.

”Double-peak” pace (two segment pulses)

First a fast rise (60-45 days — leisure), then a plateau, then another fast rise (7-0 days — corporate / walk-in). Here two kinds of segment move together, and the two pulses must be read separately.

The pace shape, then, is a diagnostic tool: when you see an abnormal pace pattern, it poses a question. Why does it look like this? Which segment or window changed?

The pace report — the backbone of the weekly revenue meeting

At the weekly revenue meeting (lesson 28) the pace report is the lead tool. A modern pace report shows:

1. The daily pace positions for the next 30-90 days — each date a row, with the current pace state.
2. Red / amber / green coding — a quick read by pace vs. budget and pace vs. last year.
3. Top-3 warning days — where the pace slip is most significant.
4. Top-3 days running ahead — where it’s worth raising the rate.
5. Segment-level breakdown — which segment is driving the pace, which is slowing.
6. Action suggestions — e.g. “Nov 26 Sunday: pace −7 pp, suggested action: Sunday Brunch package; Nov 18 (event day): rate increase +EUR 35.”

This report is Daniel’s first screen at the weekly revenue meeting. After the 5-minute overview, the meeting then focuses on the critical dates — not “we look at every day,” but the 5-7 dates that deserve attention.

The Peaqplus Same Point and Pickup module in pace analysis

The Same Point feature is the main topic of lesson 18, but here’s a first taste: Peaqplus projects the same-point onto the pickup board automatically. Not a manual comparison (“go check what it was last year on November 25 at 30 days out”), but daily, automatically, by the booking-window position.

This means Daniel doesn’t search, he reads. At every date on the Peaqplus pickup board, the last-year same-point and the pace position relative to the hotel’s own historical path are right there.

The Peaqplus Pickup module shows the three pace comparisons (last year, budget, compset) combined — a colour-coded grid where you see at a glance:

• Green: pace ahead on both last year and budget. Rate-increase suggestion.
• Amber: pace behind on one or the other. Watch.
• Red: pace slipping on both last year and budget. Action needed.

In lesson 38 (Smart Forecast) we cover how Peaqplus uses pace analysis to calibrate the forecast module’s dynamic pace path.

Key takeaways

• Pace is the time trajectory of how occupancy builds — not a point, but a curve toward check-in.
• We read pace from three main angles: vs. last year (same-point), vs. budget (the historical pace path), vs. compset (market position).
• The signals of pace acceleration and deceleration show in the change of the daily pickup rhythm — ABNORMAL acceleration is an event-discovery signal, ABNORMAL deceleration is worrying.
• The pace shape is a diagnostic tool: S-curve (healthy), frontload (event), backload (corporate), flat (problem), double-peak (two segments).
• The pace report is the backbone of the weekly revenue meeting — colour-coded, top-3 warning days, with action suggestions.